Baseball is a game of numbers.
When it comes to the Los Angeles Dodgers this season, their impressive numbers seem to indicate why they have the best record in baseball thus far. But when looked upon closer inspection, my instincts tell me that the Dodgers impressive numbers fail to tell the whole truth.
Additionally, some of the unorthodox numbers, the numbers that are usually swatted away like a fly, reveal that the Blue Crew may be in a bit of trouble come October.
In terms of hitting, the Dodgers numbers are solid. They have some of the most talented young hitters in the league. With players like James Looney, Russell Martin, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, the young guns have a 279 batting average, good enough for second in the league. Add in Manny Ramirez to the mix and the Dodgers are also seventh in the majors in runs and sixth in RBI’s.
However, my instincts tell me their youth may be their biggest question mark.
Outside of Manny Ramirez, can guys like Loney, Kemp, Martin, Blake and Ethier really be relied upon to produce in the postseason? Outside of Ramirez none of those names hit well against the Phillies last October.
While their batting average may be top notch the number rarely nobody ever discusses is that fact that the Dodgers have only have two players, Kemp and Ramirez, in their everyday lineup batting over 300.
The Dodgers hitting also lacks power. There 25th in the league in homeruns and 15th in slugging percentage. Note: The last five World Series teams were 2nd, 18th, 12th, 5th and 5th in home runs and 6th, 6th, 15th, 9th and 1st in slugging percentage during their championship seasons.
On the plus side the Dodgers also get on base more than every team in baseball besides for one. However, true Dodger blue fans will tell you that they constantly have a problem leaving runners on base. Currently, they have a 269 average with runners in scoring position, good enough for ninth in the league. While it is true that great teams leave a lot of runners on base because they get a lot of runners on base (obviously the Washington Nationals do not leave the least amount of runners on) my inklings tell me that leaving R.I.S.P will result in R.I.P for the Dodgers come October.
Take for instance the series a week-and-a-half-ago against the Cardinals, a top notch team that was surely a big test for the Dodgers to measure up against on the road. The Dodgers lost three out of four games and were 4 for 25 with runners in scoring position in the games that they lost.
When it comes to pitching, the Dodgers appear to be outstanding. They have four reliable starters in Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley, Randy Wolfe, and Hiroki Kuroda and a good bull pen with Jonathan Broxton and newly acquired George Sherrill. They also have the second best ERA in baseball at 3.45.
Unfortunately, my instincts are not impressed. They tell me that no one on the Dodgers starting rotation is dominant or experienced or seasoned enough to win a series by themselves. There is no Sandy Koufax, no Orel Heisher, no Ace that I truly feel comfortable with on the mound in a game seven situation.
The Dodgers manager Joe Torre also relies way too heavily on his bullpen this year. Currently, the Dodgers bullpen ranks in the top five in innings pitched this year, and as a result, practically all the Dodgers starters pitch no more than 100 pitches or six innings per game. Note: Seven of the last 11 world champions began the World Series with a winning performance of at least seven innings from their aces. ( Stat received from LA Times.com)
Win now, the theory goes, and worry about a tired bullpen later. That is the theory of Joe Torre, but here are the facts; in the last nine years no world championship bullpen was ranked in the top 10 in its league in innings pitched.
Meanwhile, if Michael Lewis’s Money Ball has taught us anything, it is that drawing walks is one of the most undervalued stats in all of Baseball. The Dodgers are a respectable seventh in the league in watching four bad pitches. Their starting pitching, on the other hand, give up the second most amount of walks in the league.
Overall, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 67-42 and while they are 30-12 against opponents in their division, they are 28-23 against the rest of the national league and 9-9 against the American league.
My instincts tell me the Dodgers will win the west outright but come playoff time I fear the competition is to stiff. I fear that teams like the Phillies, Cardinals, Angels, Yankees and Red-Sox are just flat out better. Those team I fear have better hitting, more dominant hitting, and a more complete 1-9 batting order. Sure the Dodgers have some big bats; But outside of Ramirez, who is slumping, none the likes of Pujols, Pedroia, Howard or Teixeira.
In terms of pitching, I fear those teams have much stronger starting rotations. Sure the Dodgers have some strong pitching, but none the likes of guys like Hamels, Carpenter, Beckett and Sabathia, who can all dominate games seemingly more so than the Dodgers youngens.
But let’s not be pessimistic entirely. The Dodgers do have some things going their way. For one, they have 29 come from behind wins this season, something that can pay dividends in the playoffs. They also have a terrific coach who prides himself on small ball.
For some reason this Dodgers team looks similar to the old Torre Yankee teams that use to win. A team that has good, but not great starting pitching, coupled with some talented contact hitters who would find a way to produce runs in the postseason. They ( Yankees) also would come from behind to win big games on numerous occasions.
Hopefully, in the end, my instincts are wrong, and the numbers that pop up the most, such as era, batting average and season wins prevail in the postseason for the Dodgers. And most importantly, may the un-talked about numbers not come back to haunt the Dodgers come Halloween time.
